Thursday, June 09, 2016

Donald Trump Could Win in the November Election

Donald Trump has one ace in the hole politically that nobody is talking about.  The economy.  If the economy goes south in the next few months it will vastly increase Trumps chance of winning the election in November, that is if he can even get nominated by his own party, which isn't a done deal yet.  Although I would say when Paul and Judy say it's a lost cause for the Republicans to pick anybody else at this point, I don't see any way of it's not being Trump no matter what he says.  If the economy goes south people will blame the democrats and the Obama administration along with Hillary.  It will be guilt by association.  The fact that the Republicans in congress will be far more to blame than any "executive action" will not be noted by the fickle public who are looking for a scapegoat.  Hartman believed that if the economy took a sharp dip people would blame Hillary and flock to Bernie, but it's too late for that.  So lets then review the causes and cures of this economy.  I'm all about problem solving.  First there's the employer problem of not checking immigrants to make sure they are legal.  There should be significant penalties for knowingly hiring illegal aliens.  These depress the wage base, obviously.  I would also disallow these "sanctuary cities" and also would want it official that state and local could go about the business of rounding up illegals and turning them over to the federal authorities.  But the biggest, most singular thing we can do is to start an FDR style massive infra-structure program for our roads, bridges, and water-works.  America is aging fast.  No Republican wants to do this.  I think we need to raise the cap of social security withholding to at least $250,000.  We could move the age of retirement back to 65 from the 67 it is now and give decent raises in the payments of Social Security to reflect the real inflation rate for old people in terms of what older people have to pay for the items they use.  I wouldn't mind it if we slipped in some one time stimulus check like Obama did in 2009.  We could pay for this by closing tax loopholes.  Then there is the minimum wage.  We need to raise the minimum wage to twelve dollars an hour to give the average wage earner more spending money to put money in circulation.  The "velocity of money" is at an all time low.   The percentage of working people in this country is at an all time low at least dating back to March of 1978, nearly twenty years.  These unemployed are a drag on the economy.  One thing we need to do is stop Paying the Banks NOT to lend money because they can get more from the Federal Government than they could lending it out.  This is insane!  We need to once and for all get rid of NAFTA and the trans pacific partnership.  And we need to change our tax laws so you can't write off business expenses and move your entire opperation overseas.  I would also have the Courts to look into this 'inversion" stuff, which ammounts to the same thing, but it's even more illegal.  We need to cut taxes on corporations to 25% and see what happens.  I wouldn't go lower than that right now because we do need revenue.  In terms of repatiating money shipped overseas, I'd take that on a case by case basis.  I wouldn't issue a blanket amnesty here.  Then we need to change the laws about paying Chief Executive Officers in stock option.  This inflates stock prices artificially.  But more importantly it discourages new hiring.  I don't see what would be wrong with a one hundred investment tax credit- - write off to plowing your corporate income into new business expansion and hiring new people.  I would also encourage people to finish college and I would increase High School standards if that's even possible, so people are more educated to begin with when they come out of the system.  I would also make a lot of speeches about hard work and self relyance.  I would cut college loan interest rates in half from six percent or higher down to about three percent, or perhaps even lower. I would slap on a half a percentage stock traders tax to slow down the frenzy of computer trading, and make a little money in the process.  I would slap on a 30% terriff on foreign goods that compete with goods made in this country.  In this I think I am in agreement with Donald Trump.  I would also get in China's case prosecuting industrial espianoge and also take steps so that they don't manipulate the price of their currencies to below true market levels.  If we do all of these things we should have a decent economy before you know it.  However right now what is destined to happen the next eight months or so is "already baked into the cake" and it would be till January when a new President takes over that we could even think about beginning to see progress.

Bernie Sanders met with President Obama this morning.  Sanders will not get out of the race till next week after the District of Columbia votes.  President Obama endorsed Secretary Clinton today.  Elizabeth Warren is endorsing Secretary Clinton tonight.  Sometimes you can damn people with excessive praise.  If I were Hartman I would be thinking about the future where Bernie Sanders is concerned and not about past accomplishments.  I was looking at the history of the nation of Israel yesterday and also read the history of ISIS.  What both of these have in common is the idea of a cause being Ripe to Take Over.  Israel took over and now the Arab nations have abandoned the Palestinian People.  Israel can literally get away with treating them however they want even though they have no power to defend themselves.  What they need is a good Attorney to help them get their land back but that won't happen.  Contrast this with the "Rightious Cause" of Bernie Sanders.  Did Thom Hartman come to praise Sanders or to bury him?  I couldn't tell from that hour of phone calls this morning.  Hartman wanted these calls to be very brief- - fifteen or twenty seconds, and not to go into "any political rants" about the Progressive struggle still going forward.  No.  Hartman acted like a funeral director who wants to have a little ceremony for the deceast and then go on to another assignment.  Free Speech was not on this morning and I tuned in WCPT for Stephanie and kind of dozed off.  But when Hartman came on Free Speech was back on the air.  I was a little disconcerted about Hartman’s hour of tribute toward Bernie almost as if they were referring to the deeds of a man who was no longer among us.  It took kind of a tone of “Well it was nice while it lasted but now that era is gone”.  It’s like that Captain on Star Trek who was wined and dined at age sixty and then forced to step into the disintegration chamber and become No More.  I could not imagine Shawn Hannity for example having an hour of “tribute” to the conservative message of Ted Cruz in that way.  He would regard such a tribute as kind of a death nell or “note of finality” or burial of the conservative cause.

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